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Tabor Sežana vs Bilje — 2. SNL 2019

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bilje
Bilje
3/9/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 20Stadion Rajko Štolfa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tabor Sežana46%
×Draw24%
Bilje30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bilje
1.29

Tabor Sežana creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tabor Sežana
1.49
Bilje
1.26

allows per match

Tabor Sežana
1.33
Bilje
1.84

finishing

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par
Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabor Sežana ↓

Bilje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tabor Sežana or draw
70%
Tabor Sežana or Bilje
76%
Draw or Bilje
54%

Winning margin

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
24%
Bilje wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
81%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
50%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
23%
Bilje 1+ goals
72%
Bilje 2+ goals
37%
Bilje 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
61%
Bilje (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabor Sežana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.84 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabor Sežana attack 1.49 + Bilje defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bilje attack 1.26 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tabor Sežana scores more
46%
level
24%
Bilje scores more
30%

Tabor Sežana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tabor Sežana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. SNL: Tabor Sežana 3–1 Bilje

Tabor Sežana beat Bilje 3-1 in 2. SNL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Štolfa in Sežana.