Cercle Brugge 1–3 Kortrijk: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kortrijk

I. Saadi 18'

H. Kage 90'

H. Van der Bruggen 55'

A. Ajagun 49'

8/10/2019

Jupiler Pro League · Round 3Jan Breydel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cercle Brugge56%

×Draw23%

Kortrijk21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchKortrijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.99

Cercle Brugge

1.80

Kortrijk

0.99

Cercle Brugge creates 82% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

1.48

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

Kortrijk

0.50

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

Kortrijk

1.94

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.17scores less

Kortrijk-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Kortrijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

79%

Cercle Brugge or Kortrijk

77%

Draw or Kortrijk

44%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

32%

Kortrijk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

83%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

54%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

27%

Kortrijk 1+ goals

63%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

26%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

73%

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 26 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.94 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Kortrijk defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kortrijk attack 0.50 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

56%

level

23%

Kortrijk scores more

21%

Cercle Brugge at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

I. Saadi↳ J. Omolo

22'

Rominigue Kouamé

49'

A. Ajagun↳ G. Kagelmacher

55'

H. Van der Bruggen↳ T. Ivanof

57'

Petar Golubovic

62'

A. Kanté← J. Omolo

62'

A. Bongiovanni← K. Hoggas

71'

H. Kage← A. Ajagun

77'

A. Batsula← E. Ocansey

83'

O. Deman← N. Ueda

85'

L. Azouni← T. Ivanof

90'

H. Kage↳ H. Van der Bruggen

Statistics

CercleKortrijk

Overview

2Corners3

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0