Kortrijk 1–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cercle Brugge

2/23/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 27Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kortrijk32%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.54

Kortrijk

1.31

Cercle Brugge

1.54

Cercle Brugge creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

1.09

creates per match

1.45

1.64

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.09

Cercle Brugge

1.45

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.64

Cercle Brugge

1.53

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Kortrijk+0.24scores more

Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

57%

Kortrijk or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

68%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

14%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

73%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

38%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

14%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

79%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

45%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

43%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.09 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Kortrijk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kortrijk scores more

32%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

43%

Cercle Brugge at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff