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Tabasalu Ulasabat vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Cup 2020

Tabasalu Ulasabat
Tabasalu Ulasabat
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 5
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsaluadvanced
10/9/2024CupCup · Round of 32Tabasalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tabasalu Ulasabat46%
×Draw18%
Läänemaa Haapsalu36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabasalu Ulasabat
2.96
Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.63

Tabasalu Ulasabat creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tabasalu Ulasabat
4.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00

allows per match

Tabasalu Ulasabat
2.25
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.43

finishing

Tabasalu Ulasabat+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabasalu Ulasabat ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Tabasalu Ulasabat or draw
64%
Tabasalu Ulasabat or Läänemaa Haapsalu
82%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
54%

Winning margin

Tabasalu Ulasabat wins by 2+
29%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tabasalu Ulasabat 1+ goals
95%
Tabasalu Ulasabat 2+ goals
79%
Tabasalu Ulasabat 3+ goals
55%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
93%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
73%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Tabasalu Ulasabat (draw refunded)
56%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabasalu Ulasabat at home — creates 4.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabasalu Ulasabat attack 4.50 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.96

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Tabasalu Ulasabat defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tabasalu Ulasabat scores more
46%
level
18%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
36%

Tabasalu Ulasabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tabasalu Ulasabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabasalu Ulasabat vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

Läänemaa Haapsalu beat Tabasalu Ulasabat 6-1 in Cup on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Tabasalu Staadion in Tabasalu.