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Tabasalu Ulasabat vs Flora III — Cup 2020

Tabasalu Ulasabat
Tabasalu Ulasabat
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Flora III
Flora III
6/21/2023CupCup · 64th FinalsTabasalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tabasalu Ulasabat37%
×Draw18%
Flora III45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabasalu Ulasabat
2.75
Flora III
3.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tabasalu Ulasabat
4.50
Flora III
3.75

allows per match

Tabasalu Ulasabat
2.25
Flora III
1.00

finishing

Tabasalu Ulasabat+0.00on par
Flora III+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabasalu Ulasabat ↓

Flora III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Tabasalu Ulasabat or draw
55%
Tabasalu Ulasabat or Flora III
82%
Draw or Flora III
63%

Winning margin

Tabasalu Ulasabat wins by 2+
22%
Flora III wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tabasalu Ulasabat 1+ goals
93%
Tabasalu Ulasabat 2+ goals
75%
Tabasalu Ulasabat 3+ goals
51%
Flora III 1+ goals
95%
Flora III 2+ goals
79%
Flora III 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Tabasalu Ulasabat (draw refunded)
45%
Flora III (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabasalu Ulasabat at home — creates 4.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Flora III away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabasalu Ulasabat attack 4.50 + Flora III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Flora III attack 3.75 + Tabasalu Ulasabat defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tabasalu Ulasabat scores more
37%
level
18%
Flora III scores more
45%

Flora III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Flora III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabasalu Ulasabat vs Flora III

Tabasalu Ulasabat beat Flora III 4-0 in Cup on June 21, 2023.

The match was played at Tabasalu Staadion in Tabasalu.