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Tabankulu vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Tabankulu
Tabankulu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
11/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tabankulu27%
×Draw27%
Young Buffaloes46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabankulu
1.02
Young Buffaloes
1.40

Young Buffaloes creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tabankulu
1.27
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Tabankulu
0.93
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Tabankulu+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabankulu ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tabankulu or draw
54%
Tabankulu or Young Buffaloes
73%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
73%

Winning margin

Tabankulu wins by 2+
10%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tabankulu 1+ goals
64%
Tabankulu 2+ goals
27%
Tabankulu 3+ goals
8%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
75%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
41%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tabankulu (draw refunded)
38%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabankulu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabankulu attack 1.27 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Tabankulu defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tabankulu scores more
27%
level
27%
Young Buffaloes scores more
46%

Young Buffaloes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabankulu vs Young Buffaloes

Young Buffaloes beat Tabankulu 1-0 in Premier League on November 19, 2025.