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Tabankulu vs Ubombo Sugar — Premier League 2020

Tabankulu
Tabankulu
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
12/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tabankulu41%
×Draw28%
Ubombo Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabankulu
1.23
Ubombo Sugar
1.03

Tabankulu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tabankulu
1.27
Ubombo Sugar
1.13

allows per match

Tabankulu
0.93
Ubombo Sugar
1.20

finishing

Tabankulu+0.00on par
Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabankulu ↓

Ubombo Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tabankulu or draw
69%
Tabankulu or Ubombo Sugar
72%
Draw or Ubombo Sugar
59%

Winning margin

Tabankulu wins by 2+
18%
Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tabankulu 1+ goals
71%
Tabankulu 2+ goals
35%
Tabankulu 3+ goals
13%
Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
64%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tabankulu (draw refunded)
57%
Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabankulu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ubombo Sugar away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabankulu attack 1.27 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ubombo Sugar attack 1.13 + Tabankulu defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tabankulu scores more
41%
level
28%
Ubombo Sugar scores more
31%

Tabankulu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tabankulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabankulu vs Ubombo Sugar

Tabankulu beat Ubombo Sugar 3-1 in Premier League on December 20, 2025.