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Szombathelyi Haladas vs Ajka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Szombathelyi Haladas
Szombathelyi Haladas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ajka
Ajka
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Szombathelyi Haladas65%
×Draw22%
Ajka13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szombathelyi Haladas
1.80
Ajka
0.64

Szombathelyi Haladas creates 181% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Szombathelyi Haladas
1.50
Ajka
0.60

allows per match

Szombathelyi Haladas
0.67
Ajka
2.10

finishing

Szombathelyi Haladas+0.00on par
Ajka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szombathelyi Haladas ↓

Ajka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Szombathelyi Haladas or draw
87%
Szombathelyi Haladas or Ajka
78%
Draw or Ajka
35%

Winning margin

Szombathelyi Haladas wins by 2+
39%
Ajka wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Szombathelyi Haladas 1+ goals
83%
Szombathelyi Haladas 2+ goals
54%
Szombathelyi Haladas 3+ goals
27%
Ajka 1+ goals
47%
Ajka 2+ goals
14%
Ajka 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Szombathelyi Haladas (draw refunded)
84%
Ajka (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szombathelyi Haladas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Ajka away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szombathelyi Haladas attack 1.50 + Ajka defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ajka attack 0.60 + Szombathelyi Haladas defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Szombathelyi Haladas scores more
65%
level
22%
Ajka scores more
13%

Szombathelyi Haladas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Szombathelyi Haladas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szombathelyi Haladas vs Ajka

Szombathelyi Haladas and Ajka drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.