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Szolnoki MAV FC vs Szeged-Csanád II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 2 – 1
Szeged-Csanád II
Szeged-Csanád II
5/19/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 29Tiszaligeti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Szolnoki MAV FC49%
×Draw23%
Szeged-Csanád II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.76
Szeged-Csanád II
1.26

Szolnoki MAV FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

creates per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.80
Szeged-Csanád II
1.09

allows per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.43
Szeged-Csanád II
1.72

finishing

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par
Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szolnoki MAV FC ↓

Szeged-Csanád II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Szolnoki MAV FC or draw
73%
Szolnoki MAV FC or Szeged-Csanád II
77%
Draw or Szeged-Csanád II
51%

Winning margin

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
27%
Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
83%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
52%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
26%
Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals
72%
Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals
36%
Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
64%
Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szolnoki MAV FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Szeged-Csanád II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.80 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.09 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
49%
level
23%
Szeged-Csanád II scores more
27%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szolnoki MAV FC vs Szeged-Csanád II

Szolnoki MAV FC and Szeged-Csanád II drew 0-0 in NB III - Southeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Tiszaligeti Stadion in Szolnok.