Szolnoki MAV FC 0–1 Kecskeméti TE II

Szolnoki MAV FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kecskeméti TE II

4/2/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 29Tiszaligeti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Szolnoki MAV FC51%

×Draw22%

Kecskeméti TE II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szolnoki MAV FCExpected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.40

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.98

Kecskeméti TE II

1.40

Szolnoki MAV FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.72

creates per match

1.18

1.61

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.72

Kecskeméti TE II

1.18

allows per match

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.61

Kecskeméti TE II

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szolnoki MAV FC ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Szolnoki MAV FC or draw

73%

Szolnoki MAV FC or Kecskeméti TE II

78%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE II

49%

Winning margin

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+

29%

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals

86%

Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals

59%

Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals

31%

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

75%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

41%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)

65%

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szolnoki MAV FC at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.72 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more

51%

level

22%

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

27%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff