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Szolnoki MAV FC vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Southeast 2023

Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
8/30/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 5Tiszaligeti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Szolnoki MAV FC42%
×Draw24%
Hódmezővásárhely34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.58
Hódmezővásárhely
1.40

Szolnoki MAV FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.80
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

allows per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.43
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

finishing

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szolnoki MAV FC ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Szolnoki MAV FC or draw
66%
Szolnoki MAV FC or Hódmezővásárhely
76%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
58%

Winning margin

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
21%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
79%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
47%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
21%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
75%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
41%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
55%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szolnoki MAV FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.80 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
42%
level
24%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
34%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Szolnoki MAV FC 1–3 Hódmezővásárhely

Hódmezővásárhely beat Szolnoki MAV FC 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Tiszaligeti Stadion in Szolnok.