Szentlőrinc SE 1–2 Tiszakecske FC: Result & Stats

Szentlőrinc SE

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tiszakecske FC

M. Szabó 79'

D. Kiprich 90+2'

G. Beliczky 18' (pen)

3/13/2022

League #272 · Round 28Szentlőrinci Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Szentlőrinc SE45%

×Draw24%

Tiszakecske FC32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szentlőrinc SEExpected goals in this matchTiszakecske FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.40

Szentlőrinc SE

1.70

Tiszakecske FC

1.40

Szentlőrinc SE creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.30

1.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Szentlőrinc SE

1.50

Tiszakecske FC

1.30

allows per match

Szentlőrinc SE

1.50

Tiszakecske FC

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szentlőrinc SE ↓

Tiszakecske FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Szentlőrinc SE or draw

68%

Szentlőrinc SE or Tiszakecske FC

76%

Draw or Tiszakecske FC

55%

Winning margin

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

23%

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

82%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

51%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

24%

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals

75%

Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals

41%

Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

58%

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szentlőrinc SE at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szentlőrinc SE attack 1.50 + Tiszakecske FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tiszakecske FC attack 1.30 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

45%

level

24%

Tiszakecske FC scores more

32%

Szentlőrinc SE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

I. Harsanyi

18'

G. BeliczkyPenalty

19'

E. Uzoma

46'

B. Németh← B. Biben

46'

N. Farkas← E. Uzoma

51'

A. Benke← M. Kosznovszky

51'

D. Kiprich← M. Simon

59'

A. Benke

69'

A. Drljo← I. Harsányi

69'

R. Rétyi← M. Grumić

69'

V. Pongrácz← L. Marsa

72'

D. Kiprich

74'

B. Gyurjan

79'

M. Szabó

82'

F. Kalmar← G. Beliczky

86'

P. Törőcsik← A. Jancsó

90+2'

D. Kiprich

Szentlőrinc

Tiszakecske

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Sluka

46'▲B. Németh←▼B. Biben

69'▲A. Drljo←▼I. Harsányi

69'▲R. Rétyi←▼M. Grumić

86'▲P. Törőcsik←▼A. Jancsó

Szentlőrinc SE substitutes

NémethDrljoRétyiTörőcsikHavasHajagosNagy

Manager: E. Visinka

46'▲N. Farkas←▼E. Uzoma

51'▲A. Benke←▼M. Kosznovszky

51'▲D. Kiprich←▼M. Simon

69'▲V. Pongrácz←▼L. Marsa

82'▲F. Kalmar←▼G. Beliczky

Tiszakecske FC substitutes

FarkasBenkeKiprichPongráczKalmarFarkasLovasPalVachtlerVégsőHalasiCsősz