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Szentlőrinc SE vs Érdi VSE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Szentlőrinc SE
Szentlőrinc SE
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
8/2/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 2Szentlőrinci Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szentlőrinc SE66%
×Draw18%
Érdi VSE15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szentlőrinc SE
2.35
Érdi VSE
1.03

Szentlőrinc SE creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Szentlőrinc SE
3.13
Érdi VSE
1.40

allows per match

Szentlőrinc SE
0.67
Érdi VSE
1.57

finishing

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par
Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szentlőrinc SE ↓

Érdi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Szentlőrinc SE or draw
85%
Szentlőrinc SE or Érdi VSE
82%
Draw or Érdi VSE
34%

Winning margin

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+
44%
Érdi VSE wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals
90%
Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals
68%
Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals
41%
Érdi VSE 1+ goals
64%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
28%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)
81%
Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szentlőrinc SE at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szentlőrinc SE attack 3.13 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.35

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Szentlőrinc SE scores more
66%
level
18%
Érdi VSE scores more
15%

Szentlőrinc SE at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szentlőrinc SE vs Érdi VSE

Szentlőrinc SE beat Érdi VSE 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Szentlőrinci Sportpálya in Szentlőrinc.