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Szekszárd vs Videoton II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Szekszárd
Szekszárd
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Videoton II
Videoton II
5/26/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 30Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Szekszárd40%
×Draw25%
Videoton II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szekszárd
1.45
Videoton II
1.31

Szekszárd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

creates per match

Szekszárd
1.27
Videoton II
1.10

allows per match

Szekszárd
1.53
Videoton II
1.63

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par
Videoton II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Videoton II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw
66%
Szekszárd or Videoton II
75%
Draw or Videoton II
60%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+
19%
Videoton II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals
77%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
42%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
18%
Videoton II 1+ goals
73%
Videoton II 2+ goals
38%
Videoton II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)
54%
Videoton II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Videoton II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Videoton II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Videoton II attack 1.10 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Szekszárd scores more
40%
level
25%
Videoton II scores more
34%

Szekszárd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Szekszárd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szekszárd vs Videoton II

Szekszárd beat Videoton II 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Szekszárdi Városi Stadion in Szekszárd.