Szekszárd 1–2 Mohácsi TE: Result & Stats

Szekszárd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mohácsi TE

9/3/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 6Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szekszárd49%

×Draw25%

Mohácsi TE26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SzekszárdExpected goals in this matchMohácsi TE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.13

Szekszárd

1.64

Mohácsi TE

1.13

Szekszárd creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.27

creates per match

0.73

1.53

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Szekszárd

1.27

Mohácsi TE

0.73

allows per match

Szekszárd

1.53

Mohácsi TE

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Mohácsi TE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw

74%

Szekszárd or Mohácsi TE

75%

Draw or Mohácsi TE

51%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+

26%

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals

81%

Szekszárd 2+ goals

49%

Szekszárd 3+ goals

23%

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals

68%

Mohácsi TE 2+ goals

31%

Mohácsi TE 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)

65%

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Mohácsi TE away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Mohácsi TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mohácsi TE attack 0.73 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Szekszárd scores more

49%

level

25%

Mohácsi TE scores more

26%

Szekszárd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Szekszárd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff