Szekszárd 2–1 Kecskeméti TE II: Result & Stats

Szekszárd

FT

2 – 1

Kecskeméti TE II

10/16/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 13Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Szekszárd48%

×Draw23%

Kecskeméti TE II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SzekszárdExpected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.31

Szekszárd

1.77

Kecskeméti TE II

1.31

Szekszárd creates 35% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

1.18

1.44

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Szekszárd

1.30

Kecskeméti TE II

1.18

allows per match

Szekszárd

1.44

Kecskeméti TE II

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw

72%

Szekszárd or Kecskeméti TE II

77%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE II

52%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+

26%

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals

83%

Szekszárd 2+ goals

53%

Szekszárd 3+ goals

26%

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

73%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

38%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)

63%

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.30 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Szekszárd defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Szekszárd scores more

48%

level

23%

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

28%

Szekszárd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Szekszárd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff