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Szekszárd vs Iváncsa — NB III - Southwest 2019

Szekszárd
Szekszárd
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Iváncsa
Iváncsa
3/8/2026NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Szekszárd26%
×Draw24%
Iváncsa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szekszárd
1.21
Iváncsa
1.75

Iváncsa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Szekszárd
1.27
Iváncsa
1.96

allows per match

Szekszárd
1.53
Iváncsa
1.16

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par
Iváncsa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Iváncsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw
50%
Szekszárd or Iváncsa
76%
Draw or Iváncsa
74%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+
11%
Iváncsa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals
70%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
34%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
12%
Iváncsa 1+ goals
83%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
52%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)
35%
Iváncsa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Iváncsa away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Iváncsa defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Iváncsa attack 1.96 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Szekszárd scores more
26%
level
24%
Iváncsa scores more
50%

Iváncsa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szekszárd vs Iváncsa

Szekszárd beat Iváncsa 6-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Szekszárdi Városi Stadion in Szekszárd.