Szekszárd 6–0 Főnix: Result & Stats

Szekszárd

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Főnix

3/9/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szekszárd59%

×Draw19%

Főnix22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SzekszárdExpected goals in this matchFőnix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.46

Szekszárd

2.44

Főnix

1.46

Szekszárd creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.27

creates per match

1.40

1.53

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Szekszárd

1.27

Főnix

1.40

allows per match

Szekszárd

1.53

Főnix

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par

Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Főnix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw

78%

Szekszárd or Főnix

81%

Draw or Főnix

41%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+

38%

Főnix wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals

91%

Szekszárd 2+ goals

70%

Szekszárd 3+ goals

43%

Főnix 1+ goals

77%

Főnix 2+ goals

43%

Főnix 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)

72%

Főnix (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.44

Főnix attack 1.40 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Szekszárd scores more

59%

level

19%

Főnix scores more

22%

Szekszárd at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Szekszárd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff