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Szekszárd vs Dunaújváros-Pálhalma — NB III - Southwest 2019

Szekszárd
Szekszárd
FT
2 – 0
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
3/17/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 20Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szekszárd59%
×Draw21%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szekszárd
2.07
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.13

Szekszárd creates 83% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Szekszárd
1.27
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.73

allows per match

Szekszárd
1.53
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
2.87

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw
80%
Szekszárd or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
79%
Draw or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
41%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+
36%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals
87%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
61%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
34%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
68%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
31%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)
74%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.07

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.73 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Szekszárd scores more
59%
level
21%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
20%

Szekszárd at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Szekszárd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szekszárd vs Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

Szekszárd beat Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Szekszárdi Városi Stadion in Szekszárd.