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Szeged-Csanád II vs Monori Se — NB III - Southeast 2023

Szeged-Csanád II
Szeged-Csanád II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Monori Se
Monori Se
8/30/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 5Szent Gellért Fórum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Szeged-Csanád II34%
×Draw24%
Monori Se42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szeged-Csanád II
1.40
Monori Se
1.57

Monori Se creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 45 away

creates per match

Szeged-Csanád II
1.53
Monori Se
1.67

allows per match

Szeged-Csanád II
1.47
Monori Se
1.27

finishing

Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par
Monori Se+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szeged-Csanád II ↓

Monori Se →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Szeged-Csanád II or draw
58%
Szeged-Csanád II or Monori Se
76%
Draw or Monori Se
66%

Winning margin

Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+
15%
Monori Se wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals
75%
Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals
41%
Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals
17%
Monori Se 1+ goals
79%
Monori Se 2+ goals
46%
Monori Se 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)
45%
Monori Se (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szeged-Csanád II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Monori Se away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.53 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Monori Se attack 1.67 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Szeged-Csanád II scores more
34%
level
24%
Monori Se scores more
42%

Monori Se at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Monori Se will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Szeged-Csanád II 1–1 Monori Se

Szeged-Csanád II and Monori Se drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Szent Gellért Fórum in Szeged.