Szeged-Csanád II 4–2 Füzesgyarmati: Result & Stats

Szeged-Csanád II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Füzesgyarmati

9/9/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 7Szent Gellért Fórum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szeged-Csanád II60%

×Draw19%

Füzesgyarmati21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szeged-Csanád IIExpected goals in this matchFüzesgyarmati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.33

Szeged-Csanád II

2.37

Füzesgyarmati

1.33

Szeged-Csanád II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

1.47

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Szeged-Csanád II

1.53

Füzesgyarmati

1.20

allows per match

Szeged-Csanád II

1.47

Füzesgyarmati

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szeged-Csanád II ↓

Füzesgyarmati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Szeged-Csanád II or draw

79%

Szeged-Csanád II or Füzesgyarmati

81%

Draw or Füzesgyarmati

40%

Winning margin

Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+

38%

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals

91%

Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals

68%

Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals

42%

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

74%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

38%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)

74%

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szeged-Csanád II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.53 + Füzesgyarmati defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.37

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.20 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Szeged-Csanád II scores more

60%

level

19%

Füzesgyarmati scores more

21%

Szeged-Csanád II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Szeged-Csanád II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff