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Syunik vs Nikarm — First League 2019

Syunik
Syunik
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Nikarm
Nikarm
3/26/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Syunik82%
×Draw11%
Nikarm7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syunik
3.26
Nikarm
0.85

Syunik creates 284% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

creates per match

Syunik
2.26
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

Syunik
0.98
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

Syunik+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syunik ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Syunik or draw
93%
Syunik or Nikarm
89%
Draw or Nikarm
18%

Winning margin

Syunik wins by 2+
64%
Nikarm wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Syunik 1+ goals
96%
Syunik 2+ goals
83%
Syunik 3+ goals
61%
Nikarm 1+ goals
57%
Nikarm 2+ goals
21%
Nikarm 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Syunik (draw refunded)
93%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syunik at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syunik attack 2.26 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.26

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Syunik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Syunik scores more
82%
level
11%
Nikarm scores more
7%

Syunik at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Syunik 7–1 Nikarm

Syunik beat Nikarm 7-1 in First League on March 26, 2025.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.