Syunik 3–0 Ararat-Armenia II: Result & Stats

Syunik

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ararat-Armenia II

8/19/2025

First League · Round 3Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Syunik56%

×Draw21%

Ararat-Armenia II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SyunikExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.23

Syunik

2.06

Ararat-Armenia II

1.23

Syunik creates 67% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 99 away

2.26

creates per match

1.48

0.98

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Syunik

2.26

Ararat-Armenia II

1.48

allows per match

Syunik

0.98

Ararat-Armenia II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syunik+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syunik ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Syunik or draw

78%

Syunik or Ararat-Armenia II

79%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia II

44%

Winning margin

Syunik wins by 2+

34%

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Syunik 1+ goals

87%

Syunik 2+ goals

61%

Syunik 3+ goals

34%

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

71%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

35%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Syunik (draw refunded)

71%

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syunik at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syunik attack 2.26 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Syunik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Syunik scores more

56%

level

21%

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

22%

Syunik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff