Syrianska FC 1–1 United Nordic: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

1 – 1

United Nordic

10/31/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 1Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Syrianska FC34%

×Draw22%

United Nordic44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchUnited Nordic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.92

Syrianska FC

1.67

United Nordic

1.92

United Nordic creates 15% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 27 away

1.82

creates per match

2.33

1.51

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.82

United Nordic

2.33

allows per match

Syrianska FC

1.51

United Nordic

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

United Nordic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

United Nordic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

56%

Syrianska FC or United Nordic

78%

Draw or United Nordic

66%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

17%

United Nordic wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

81%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

50%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

23%

United Nordic 1+ goals

85%

United Nordic 2+ goals

57%

United Nordic 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

44%

United Nordic (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

United Nordic away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + United Nordic defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

United Nordic attack 2.33 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

34%

level

22%

United Nordic scores more

44%

United Nordic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff