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Syrianska FC vs Rågsved — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rågsved
Rågsved
G. Ishimwe 36'
O. Jemal 41'
5/24/2025Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 9Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Syrianska FC43%
×Draw23%
Rågsved34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.80
Rågsved
1.58

Syrianska FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.82
Rågsved
1.66

allows per match

Syrianska FC
1.51
Rågsved
1.78

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Rågsved+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Rågsved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
66%
Syrianska FC or Rågsved
77%
Draw or Rågsved
57%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
23%
Rågsved wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
83%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
54%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
27%
Rågsved 1+ goals
79%
Rågsved 2+ goals
47%
Rågsved 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
56%
Rågsved (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Rågsved away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Rågsved defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.80

Rågsved attack 1.66 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
43%
level
23%
Rågsved scores more
34%

Syrianska FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
G. Ishimwe
41'
O. Jemal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Syrianska FC 1–1 Rågsved

Syrianska FC and Rågsved drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on May 24, 2025.

Goals: G. Ishimwe (36'), O. Jemal (41').

The match was played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.