Syrianska FC 1–2 Ljungsbro: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ljungsbro

4/14/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 3Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Syrianska FC59%

×Draw19%

Ljungsbro22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchLjungsbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.44

Syrianska FC

2.45

Ljungsbro

1.44

Syrianska FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

1.82

creates per match

1.38

1.51

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.82

Ljungsbro

1.38

allows per match

Syrianska FC

1.51

Ljungsbro

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Ljungsbro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

78%

Syrianska FC or Ljungsbro

81%

Draw or Ljungsbro

41%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

38%

Ljungsbro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

91%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

70%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

44%

Ljungsbro 1+ goals

76%

Ljungsbro 2+ goals

42%

Ljungsbro 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

73%

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Ljungsbro away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Ljungsbro defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.45

Ljungsbro attack 1.38 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

59%

level

19%

Ljungsbro scores more

22%

Syrianska FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff