Syrianska FC 2–1 Karlberg: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Karlberg

5/7/2022

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 6Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Syrianska FC50%

×Draw22%

Karlberg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchKarlberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.37

Syrianska FC

1.91

Karlberg

1.37

Syrianska FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

1.82

creates per match

1.23

1.51

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.82

Karlberg

1.23

allows per match

Syrianska FC

1.51

Karlberg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Karlberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

72%

Syrianska FC or Karlberg

78%

Draw or Karlberg

50%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

28%

Karlberg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

85%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

57%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

30%

Karlberg 1+ goals

75%

Karlberg 2+ goals

40%

Karlberg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

64%

Karlberg (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Karlberg away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Karlberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Karlberg attack 1.23 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

50%

level

22%

Karlberg scores more

28%

Syrianska FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff