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Syrianska FC vs Jonkopings Sodra — Superettan 2018

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
6/14/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 13Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC30%
×Draw24%
Jonkopings Sodra45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.31
Jonkopings Sodra
1.65

Jonkopings Sodra creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.07
Jonkopings Sodra
1.30

allows per match

Syrianska FC
2.00
Jonkopings Sodra
1.56

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
55%
Syrianska FC or Jonkopings Sodra
76%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
70%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
13%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
73%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
38%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
14%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
81%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
49%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
40%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
30%
level
24%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
45%

Jonkopings Sodra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Syrianska FC 2–1 Jonkopings Sodra

Syrianska FC beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 in Superettan on June 14, 2019.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje).