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Syrianska FC vs IK brage — Superettan 2018

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
7/20/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC29%
×Draw24%
IK brage47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.25
IK brage
1.65

IK brage creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.07
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Syrianska FC
2.00
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
53%
Syrianska FC or IK brage
76%
Draw or IK brage
71%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
12%
IK brage wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
71%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
36%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
13%
IK brage 1+ goals
81%
IK brage 2+ goals
49%
IK brage 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
38%
IK brage (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

IK brage attack 1.30 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
29%
level
24%
IK brage scores more
47%

IK brage at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Syrianska FC 0–2 IK brage

IK brage beat Syrianska FC 2-0 in Superettan on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje).