Syrianska FC 2–1 IFK Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Eskilstuna

5/29/2022

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 10Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Syrianska FC52%

×Draw21%

IFK Eskilstuna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchIFK Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.47

Syrianska FC

2.12

IFK Eskilstuna

1.47

Syrianska FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

1.82

creates per match

1.43

1.51

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.82

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

allows per match

Syrianska FC

1.51

IFK Eskilstuna

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

73%

Syrianska FC or IFK Eskilstuna

79%

Draw or IFK Eskilstuna

48%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

31%

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

88%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

62%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

35%

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

77%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

43%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

66%

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.12

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

52%

level

21%

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

27%

Syrianska FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff