IFK Eskilstuna 1–2 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

IFK Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Syrianska FC

4/21/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 4Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna39%

×Draw22%

Syrianska FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.82

IFK Eskilstuna

1.81

Syrianska FC

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

1.76

creates per match

1.73

1.92

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna

1.76

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna

1.92

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw

61%

IFK Eskilstuna or Syrianska FC

78%

Draw or Syrianska FC

61%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

20%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

84%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

54%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

27%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

84%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

54%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

50%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

39%

level

22%

Syrianska FC scores more

39%

IFK Eskilstuna at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff