Syrianska FC 0–2 Halmstad: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Halmstad

11/3/2019

Superettan · Round 30Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC22%

×Draw23%

Halmstad56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.86

Syrianska FC

1.07

Halmstad

1.86

Halmstad creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.07

creates per match

1.73

2.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.07

Halmstad

1.73

allows per match

Syrianska FC

2.00

Halmstad

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

44%

Syrianska FC or Halmstad

77%

Draw or Halmstad

78%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

8%

Halmstad wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

66%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

29%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

9%

Halmstad 1+ goals

84%

Halmstad 2+ goals

55%

Halmstad 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

28%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + Halmstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Halmstad attack 1.73 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

22%

level

23%

Halmstad scores more

56%

Halmstad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff