Syria 0–0 Palestine: Result & Stats | Asian Cup

Syria

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palestine

1/6/2019

Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Syria37%

×Draw34%

Palestine29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SyriaExpected goals in this matchPalestine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.79

Syria

0.92

Palestine

0.79

Syria creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.33

creates per match

1.25

0.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Syria

0.33

Palestine

1.25

allows per match

Syria

0.33

Palestine

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syria+0.00on par

Palestine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syria ↓

Palestine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Syria or draw

71%

Syria or Palestine

66%

Draw or Palestine

63%

Winning margin

Syria wins by 2+

13%

Palestine wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Syria 1+ goals

60%

Syria 2+ goals

23%

Syria 3+ goals

7%

Palestine 1+ goals

55%

Palestine 2+ goals

19%

Palestine 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Syria (draw refunded)

55%

Palestine (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syria at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Palestine away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syria attack 0.33 + Palestine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Palestine attack 1.25 + Syria defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Syria scores more

37%

level

34%

Palestine scores more

29%

Syria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Syria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Jonathan Cantillana

41'

Yousef Qalfa← Osama Omari

43'

Mohammed Saleh

59'

Mus'ab K.I. Al Battat

64'

Alexis Norambuena← Pablo Tamburrini

69'

Mohammed Saleh

69'

Mohammed Saleh

73'

Mohammed Osman← Zahir Al Midani

76'

Tamer Haj Mohamad

76'

Shadi Sha'aban← Jonathan Cantillana

81'

Ahmad Ashkar← Tamer Haj Mohamad

82'

Mahmoud Wadi← Yasir Pinto

90'

Ahmad Ashkar

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SyriaPalestine

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots3

6Corners1

11Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots3

3On Target0

6Off Target3

Passing

61%Possession39%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4