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Syria vs Kyrgyzstan — Friendlies 2026

Syria
Syria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
1/5/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Shabab Al Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Syria51%
×Draw25%
Kyrgyzstan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syria
1.56
Kyrgyzstan
0.97

Syria creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Syria
1.11
Kyrgyzstan
0.73

allows per match

Syria
1.22
Kyrgyzstan
2.00

finishing

Syria+0.00on par
Kyrgyzstan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syria ↓

Kyrgyzstan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Syria or draw
76%
Syria or Kyrgyzstan
75%
Draw or Kyrgyzstan
49%

Winning margin

Syria wins by 2+
26%
Kyrgyzstan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Syria 1+ goals
79%
Syria 2+ goals
46%
Syria 3+ goals
21%
Kyrgyzstan 1+ goals
62%
Kyrgyzstan 2+ goals
25%
Kyrgyzstan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Syria (draw refunded)
68%
Kyrgyzstan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syria at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Kyrgyzstan away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syria attack 1.11 + Kyrgyzstan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kyrgyzstan attack 0.73 + Syria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Syria scores more
51%
level
25%
Kyrgyzstan scores more
24%

Syria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Syria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syria vs Kyrgyzstan

Syria and Kyrgyzstan drew 1-1 in Friendlies on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Shabab Al Ahli Stadium in Dubai.