CSK 1–2 Stade Malien Bamako: Result & Stats

CSK

FT

1 – 2

Stade Malien Bamako

12/28/2019

Première Division · Round 12Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSK33%

×Draw28%

Stade Malien Bamako39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKExpected goals in this matchStade Malien Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.24

CSK

1.11

Stade Malien Bamako

1.24

Stade Malien Bamako creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 98 away

1.64

creates per match

1.39

1.09

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

CSK

1.64

Stade Malien Bamako

1.39

allows per match

CSK

1.09

Stade Malien Bamako

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSK+0.00on par

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSK ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CSK or draw

61%

CSK or Stade Malien Bamako

72%

Draw or Stade Malien Bamako

67%

Winning margin

CSK wins by 2+

13%

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CSK 1+ goals

67%

CSK 2+ goals

30%

CSK 3+ goals

10%

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

71%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

35%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CSK (draw refunded)

46%

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSK attack 1.64 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.11

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.39 + CSK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CSK scores more

33%

level

28%

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

39%

Stade Malien Bamako at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.