Syria 5–1 Afghanistan: Result & Stats

Syria

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Afghanistan

3/31/2026

Asian Cup - Qualification · 3rd Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Syria84%

×Draw11%

Afghanistan5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SyriaExpected goals in this matchAfghanistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.62

Syria

3.00

Afghanistan

0.62

Syria creates 384% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

4.00

creates per match

0.57

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Syria

4.00

Afghanistan

0.57

allows per match

Syria

0.67

Afghanistan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syria+0.00on par

Afghanistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syria ↓

Afghanistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Syria or draw

95%

Syria or Afghanistan

89%

Draw or Afghanistan

16%

Winning margin

Syria wins by 2+

65%

Afghanistan wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Syria 1+ goals

95%

Syria 2+ goals

79%

Syria 3+ goals

56%

Afghanistan 1+ goals

46%

Afghanistan 2+ goals

13%

Afghanistan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Syria (draw refunded)

94%

Afghanistan (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syria at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Afghanistan away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syria attack 4.00 + Afghanistan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Afghanistan attack 0.57 + Syria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Syria scores more

84%

level

11%

Afghanistan scores more

5%

Syria at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Syria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff