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Syra Mensdorf vs Schifflange — Cup 2020

Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
FT
1 – 4
Schifflange
Schifflange
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade op Biirk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Syra Mensdorf27%
×Draw20%
Schifflange53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syra Mensdorf
1.69
Schifflange
2.38

Schifflange creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.00
Schifflange
2.63

allows per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.14
Schifflange
1.38

finishing

Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par
Schifflange+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syra Mensdorf ↓

Schifflange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Syra Mensdorf or draw
47%
Syra Mensdorf or Schifflange
80%
Draw or Schifflange
73%

Winning margin

Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
13%
Schifflange wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
82%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
50%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
24%
Schifflange 1+ goals
91%
Schifflange 2+ goals
68%
Schifflange 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
34%
Schifflange (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syra Mensdorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Schifflange away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syra Mensdorf attack 2.00 + Schifflange defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Schifflange attack 2.63 + Syra Mensdorf defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Syra Mensdorf scores more
27%
level
20%
Schifflange scores more
53%

Schifflange at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Syra Mensdorf 1–4 Schifflange

Schifflange beat Syra Mensdorf 4-1 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade op Biirk in Mensdorf.