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Syra Mensdorf vs RM Hamm Benfica — Cup 2020

Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
CANC
00:00
RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
3/7/2021CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Syra Mensdorf26%
×Draw19%
RM Hamm Benfica54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syra Mensdorf
1.69
RM Hamm Benfica
2.45

RM Hamm Benfica creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.00
RM Hamm Benfica
2.75

allows per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.14
RM Hamm Benfica
1.38

finishing

Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par
RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syra Mensdorf ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Syra Mensdorf or draw
46%
Syra Mensdorf or RM Hamm Benfica
81%
Draw or RM Hamm Benfica
74%

Winning margin

Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
13%
RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
82%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
50%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
24%
RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
91%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
70%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
33%
RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syra Mensdorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syra Mensdorf attack 2.00 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

RM Hamm Benfica attack 2.75 + Syra Mensdorf defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Syra Mensdorf scores more
26%
level
19%
RM Hamm Benfica scores more
54%

RM Hamm Benfica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RM Hamm Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Syra Mensdorf host RM Hamm Benfica

March 7, 2021: Syra Mensdorf take on RM Hamm Benfica in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.