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Syra Mensdorf vs Progres Niederkorn — Cup 2020

Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkornadvanced
9/19/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Syra Mensdorf16%
×Draw15%
Progres Niederkorn69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syra Mensdorf
1.50
Progres Niederkorn
3.13

Progres Niederkorn creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.00
Progres Niederkorn
4.13

allows per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.14
Progres Niederkorn
1.00

finishing

Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syra Mensdorf ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Syra Mensdorf or draw
31%
Syra Mensdorf or Progres Niederkorn
85%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
84%

Winning margin

Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
7%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
78%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
44%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
19%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
95%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
81%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
19%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syra Mensdorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syra Mensdorf attack 2.00 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + Syra Mensdorf defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Syra Mensdorf scores more
16%
level
15%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
69%

Progres Niederkorn at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syra Mensdorf vs Progres Niederkorn

Progres Niederkorn beat Syra Mensdorf 3-0 in Cup on September 19, 2025.