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Syra Mensdorf vs Marisca Mersch — Cup 2020

Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Merschadvanced
10/28/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade op Biirk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Syra Mensdorf36%
×Draw21%
Marisca Mersch44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syra Mensdorf
1.90
Marisca Mersch
2.12

Marisca Mersch creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.10

allows per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.14
Marisca Mersch
1.80

finishing

Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syra Mensdorf ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Syra Mensdorf or draw
56%
Syra Mensdorf or Marisca Mersch
79%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
64%

Winning margin

Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
19%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
85%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
56%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
29%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
88%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
62%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
45%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syra Mensdorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syra Mensdorf attack 2.00 + Marisca Mersch defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Marisca Mersch attack 2.10 + Syra Mensdorf defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Syra Mensdorf scores more
36%
level
21%
Marisca Mersch scores more
44%

Marisca Mersch at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marisca Mersch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syra Mensdorf vs Marisca Mersch

Marisca Mersch beat Syra Mensdorf 2-0 in Cup on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stade op Biirk in Mensdorf.