Syra Mensdorf 1–0 Mamer: Result & Stats | Cup

Syra Mensdorf

1 – 0

Mamer

10/18/2020

Cup · 2nd RoundStade op Biirk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Syra Mensdorf34%

×Draw23%

Mamer44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syra MensdorfExpected goals in this matchMamer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.82

Syra Mensdorf

1.58

Mamer

1.82

Mamer creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

2.14

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Syra Mensdorf

2.00

Mamer

1.50

allows per match

Syra Mensdorf

2.14

Mamer

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par

Mamer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syra Mensdorf ↓

Mamer →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Syra Mensdorf or draw

56%

Syra Mensdorf or Mamer

77%

Draw or Mamer

66%

Winning margin

Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+

16%

Mamer wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals

79%

Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals

47%

Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals

21%

Mamer 1+ goals

84%

Mamer 2+ goals

54%

Mamer 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)

44%

Mamer (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Syra Mensdorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Mamer away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Syra Mensdorf attack 2.00 + Mamer defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mamer attack 1.50 + Syra Mensdorf defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Syra Mensdorf scores more

34%

level

23%

Mamer scores more

44%

Mamer at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mamer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff