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Syra Mensdorf vs F91 Dudelange — Cup 2020

Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade op Biirk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Syra Mensdorf18%
×Draw16%
F91 Dudelange66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syra Mensdorf
1.60
F91 Dudelange
3.07

F91 Dudelange creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.00
F91 Dudelange
4.00

allows per match

Syra Mensdorf
2.14
F91 Dudelange
1.20

finishing

Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syra Mensdorf ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Syra Mensdorf or draw
34%
Syra Mensdorf or F91 Dudelange
84%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
82%

Winning margin

Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
8%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
80%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
47%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
22%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
95%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
80%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
21%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syra Mensdorf at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syra Mensdorf attack 2.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + Syra Mensdorf defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Syra Mensdorf scores more
18%
level
16%
F91 Dudelange scores more
66%

F91 Dudelange at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syra Mensdorf vs F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Syra Mensdorf 5-2 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade op Biirk in Mensdorf.