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Sylvia vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Umea FF
Umea FF
9/15/2019Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Round 23Östgötaporten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sylvia61%
×Draw20%
Umea FF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
2.12
Umea FF
1.07

Sylvia creates 98% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sylvia
1.87
Umea FF
0.83

allows per match

Sylvia
1.32
Umea FF
2.37

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
82%
Sylvia or Umea FF
80%
Draw or Umea FF
39%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
38%
Umea FF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
88%
Sylvia 2+ goals
62%
Sylvia 3+ goals
35%
Umea FF 1+ goals
66%
Umea FF 2+ goals
29%
Umea FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
77%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 75 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 1.87 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.12

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Sylvia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sylvia scores more
61%
level
20%
Umea FF scores more
18%

Sylvia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sylvia 3 – 1 Umea FF

Sylvia beat Umea FF 3-1 in Ettan - Norra on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Östgötaporten in Norrköping.