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Sylvia vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
8/25/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 18PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sylvia59%
×Draw20%
Syrianska FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
2.25
Syrianska FC
1.29

Sylvia creates 74% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 73 away

creates per match

Sylvia
2.63
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Sylvia
0.85
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
79%
Sylvia or Syrianska FC
80%
Draw or Syrianska FC
41%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
37%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
89%
Sylvia 2+ goals
65%
Sylvia 3+ goals
39%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
72%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
37%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
73%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 2.63 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Sylvia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sylvia scores more
59%
level
20%
Syrianska FC scores more
21%

Sylvia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Sylvia 2–0 Syrianska FC

Sylvia beat Syrianska FC 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.