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Sylvia vs Sirius — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sirius
Sirius
2/20/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sylvia15%
×Draw18%
Sirius67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
1.10
Sirius
2.46

Sirius creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sylvia
1.33
Sirius
2.76

allows per match

Sylvia
2.17
Sirius
0.88

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
33%
Sylvia or Sirius
82%
Draw or Sirius
85%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
6%
Sirius wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
67%
Sylvia 2+ goals
30%
Sylvia 3+ goals
10%
Sirius 1+ goals
91%
Sirius 2+ goals
70%
Sirius 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
19%
Sirius (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Sirius away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 1.33 + Sirius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sirius attack 2.76 + Sylvia defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sylvia scores more
15%
level
18%
Sirius scores more
67%

Sirius at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Sylvia 0–3 Sirius

Sirius beat Sylvia 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.