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Sylvia vs Kalmar FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
2/27/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sylvia23%
×Draw21%
Kalmar FF55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
1.27
Kalmar FF
2.05

Kalmar FF creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sylvia
1.33
Kalmar FF
1.93

allows per match

Sylvia
2.17
Kalmar FF
1.20

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
45%
Sylvia or Kalmar FF
79%
Draw or Kalmar FF
77%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
10%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
72%
Sylvia 2+ goals
36%
Sylvia 3+ goals
14%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
87%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
61%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
30%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 1.33 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + Sylvia defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sylvia scores more
23%
level
21%
Kalmar FF scores more
55%

Kalmar FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Sylvia 0–2 Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat Sylvia 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.