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Sylvia vs IK Frej — Ettan - Norra 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IK Frej
IK Frej
11/14/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 28Östgötaporten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sylvia52%
×Draw22%
IK Frej26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
2.00
IK Frej
1.36

Sylvia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sylvia
1.87
IK Frej
1.40

allows per match

Sylvia
1.32
IK Frej
2.13

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
74%
Sylvia or IK Frej
78%
Draw or IK Frej
48%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
30%
IK Frej wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
86%
Sylvia 2+ goals
59%
Sylvia 3+ goals
32%
IK Frej 1+ goals
74%
IK Frej 2+ goals
39%
IK Frej 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
67%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 75 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 1.87 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.00

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Sylvia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sylvia scores more
52%
level
22%
IK Frej scores more
26%

Sylvia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Sylvia 2–0 IK Frej

Sylvia beat IK Frej 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Östgötaporten in Norrköping.