Sylvia 6–0 IFK Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Sylvia

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

IFK Eskilstuna

5/20/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 8PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sylvia67%

×Draw18%

IFK Eskilstuna16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SylviaExpected goals in this matchIFK Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.14

Sylvia

2.52

IFK Eskilstuna

1.14

Sylvia creates 121% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

2.63

creates per match

1.43

0.85

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Sylvia

2.63

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

allows per match

Sylvia

0.85

IFK Eskilstuna

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw

84%

Sylvia or IFK Eskilstuna

82%

Draw or IFK Eskilstuna

33%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+

45%

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals

92%

Sylvia 2+ goals

71%

Sylvia 3+ goals

45%

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

68%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

32%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)

81%

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 2.63 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.52

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Sylvia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sylvia scores more

67%

level

18%

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

16%

Sylvia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff