Sylvia 4–3 Hammarby Talang: Result & Stats

Sylvia

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hammarby Talang

9/24/2022

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 24PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sylvia40%

×Draw24%

Hammarby Talang35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SylviaExpected goals in this matchHammarby Talang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.45

Sylvia

1.56

Hammarby Talang

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 83 away

1.87

creates per match

1.58

1.32

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sylvia

1.87

Hammarby Talang

1.58

allows per match

Sylvia

1.32

Hammarby Talang

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par

Hammarby Talang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Hammarby Talang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw

65%

Sylvia or Hammarby Talang

76%

Draw or Hammarby Talang

60%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+

20%

Hammarby Talang wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals

79%

Sylvia 2+ goals

46%

Sylvia 3+ goals

21%

Hammarby Talang 1+ goals

77%

Hammarby Talang 2+ goals

42%

Hammarby Talang 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)

53%

Hammarby Talang (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 75 matches

Hammarby Talang away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 1.87 + Hammarby Talang defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hammarby Talang attack 1.58 + Sylvia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sylvia scores more

40%

level

24%

Hammarby Talang scores more

35%

Sylvia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff