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Sylvia vs Arameiska / Syrianska — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arameiska / Syrianska
Arameiska / Syrianska
4/7/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 2PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sylvia68%
×Draw18%
Arameiska / Syrianska14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
2.46
Arameiska / Syrianska
1.03

Sylvia creates 139% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sylvia
2.63
Arameiska / Syrianska
1.21

allows per match

Sylvia
0.85
Arameiska / Syrianska
2.28

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
Arameiska / Syrianska+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Arameiska / Syrianska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
86%
Sylvia or Arameiska / Syrianska
82%
Draw or Arameiska / Syrianska
32%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
46%
Arameiska / Syrianska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
91%
Sylvia 2+ goals
70%
Sylvia 3+ goals
44%
Arameiska / Syrianska 1+ goals
64%
Arameiska / Syrianska 2+ goals
28%
Arameiska / Syrianska 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
83%
Arameiska / Syrianska (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Arameiska / Syrianska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 2.63 + Arameiska / Syrianska defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.46

Arameiska / Syrianska attack 1.21 + Sylvia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sylvia scores more
68%
level
18%
Arameiska / Syrianska scores more
14%

Sylvia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sylvia vs Arameiska / Syrianska

Sylvia beat Arameiska / Syrianska 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.